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"Critical Energy Issues and Challenges in Emerging Scenario of New World Energy Order"
“Critical Energy Issues and Challenges in Emerging Scenario of New World Energy Order
---A Radical
Transition from Carbon Energy to Sustainable Renewable Energy Portfolios”
Abstract:
The New World Energy Order is taking its birth, on a sustainable roadmap of economic development, after a long gestation at oil dependency over past five decades. There has been a fundamental change in the perspectives regarding energy resources over the past few decades, in context of emergence of “New Energy Era”, on treatise of “ Limits to Growth” to more recent prediction of an impending peak in world oil production by Colin Campbell et al. The recognition of Energy - Resource Limits has gained greater credence, and the time horizon, when those limits might begin to impact energy prices and supplies has shortened to a matter of decades. In a scenario of emerging New World Energy Order, planning for a transition from traditional fuels to hydrocarbon alternatives (including more – exotic oil and natural gas resources) has increased in importance world over, while developing applications and technologies for a more radical transition from carbon to renewable energy sources in the Global Energy Portfolios.
There are a number of different energy scenarios currently being proposed, but most industry analysts forecast that world primary energy demand will double by 2030, climbing to 18 Giga-tones of oil equivalent ( Gtoe ) per year from 9 Gtoe in 2000, and roughly triple to 25 – 30 Gtoe by 2050. According to these projections, by 2050 fossil fuels will account for no more than two-thirds of all energy consumed vs. 85% of hydrocarbon energy consumed today. The need of the hour is to emphatically examine the assumptions underlying these energy forecasts covering the next half century and reassess the world’s likely Energy Equation in 2050. Furthermore, the whole debate about Sustainable Development and ongoing Environmental Issues in context of “Kyoto Mechanisms”, and “UN Framework Convention on Climate Change”, will derive a new energy- portfolio, leading to technological breakthrough for improved energy efficiency, while minimizing environmental impacts and economic and social imbalances in energy economics. The issues involved in energy production and consumption are many, however, the paper aggressively focuses to the key parameters involved such as: economic growth, demographic developments, use of natural resources and particularly fossil fuels ( oil, natural gas and coal ), the outlook for renewable energies and nuclear power issues. It is further aimed at to take a fresh look at the global energy production and consumption data to synthesize a “New Energy Equation”. While the 20th century was the era of Carbon Based Economy, there is growing argument that the 21st century will be the Hydrogen Economy, incorporating Energy Portfolio of Hydrogen and Renewable resources as well. The millennium has started with unprecedented optimism on Green Energy Use, resulting in enormous contributions of Gas, Solar & Wind Power, Renewable resources and Nuclear Produced Hydrogen, in the Global Energy Growth, on a scale never before witnessed.
In conclusion, major changes in the world’s preferred energy sources by the next half a century, will lead to evolve a synergy between hydrocarbons, nuclear – produced hydrogen systems and Renewable energy sources. Until 2020, there will be a strong growth in the use of hydrocarbons (oil and particularly gas), while from 2030, onwards, much of the additional energy demand will have to met by nuclear power, hydrogen and renewable energy sources. We should therefore face these rather inevitable facts and prepare for a largely nuclear long – term energy - prospects or more precisely, for a world where fossil fuel and nuclear fission will become synergetic energy sources ensuring a sustainable energy future, in addition to the use of renewable energy sources.
Author: Dr. Jagdish P. N. Giri,
Founder and Executive Director: Aaditya Energy Foundation, Chennai, India, E-mail: jpngiri@aadityaenergyfoundation.com
Website: www.aadityaenergyfoundation.org
Published: November 15, 2007
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