Harnessing South Asian hydropower potential
KHILENDRA BASNYAT
South Asia has abundant energy sources such as water, coal and gas. The mountainous terrain of Bhutan, India, Nepal and Pakistan has huge hydropower potential. It has been estimated that Bhutan, Nepal and northeast India have hydropower potential of over 120 GW.
Bangladesh has adequate gas reserves, and can avail of the opportunity of gas trade with Bhutan, India and Nepal. In exchange of gas, Bhutan, India and Nepal could export hydropower to Bangladesh.
India is rich in coal reserves, which can be used to meet the rising demand for power in South Asian countries. This would help meet the peak load demands in Bangladesh and Pakistan, working to the advantage of all these three countries.
In the past few decades, Pakistan has greatly increased its power generating capacity based on natural gas through independent power producers. It can now supply over 3000 MW power to India.
Sri Lanka can optimize power supply through a common power grid due to its link with South India. Likewise, a common power grid could lower transportation costs for supplying natural gas by pipelines and Pakistan could serve as the gateway for natural gas from India and central Asia.
The per capita consumption of energy among South Asian countries continues to be low. This energy shortage has resulted in low-growth equilibrium in the region.
According to a prediction made by the International Energy Agency some years ago, South Asia will have the highest growth rate of energy consumption by 2010. However, the predictions for demand and supply only indicate broad trends, which are likely to emerge because price elasticity, infrastructure and technological development have to be considered.
The rate of growth of energy consumption in the past few decades for South Asia was 5.5 percent per annum. In 1996 alone, India and Pakistan accounted for 3.5 percent of the primary energy consumption, which has increased considerably in recent time. However, figure of 313 MW for South Asia as a whole is still inadequate compared to world standards. Losses have incurred through transmission and distribution where enormous losses are due to theft and pilferage.
The demand for electricity is expected to rise at the rate of 6.7 percent per annum in the South Asian region. This is due to increasing income and rural electrification.
In accordance with the government of India’s own estimates, the peak demand shortfall is about 30 percent; the most affected being the northern region at 38.5 percent of its national income. By 2011-12 India will have to double its generating capacity to 1,76,647 MW to meet the peak electricity demands.
Pakistan is facing power shortages with the peak demand shortfall of electricity causing economic losses up to 2000 MW. However, the predicated demand and generating capacity targets for Pakistan depict that it will have surplus powers in the years to come.
In Bangladesh, the average electricity demand is 1,700 MW despite the fact that peak load demand is more 1900 MW.
In Nepal, electricity consumption increased at 10.3 percent during 1983 – 94. The shortfall in the next couple of year is likely to be 51 percent of the peak load capacity. Energy demand in this country is slated to grow at the rate of 12 percent in the years to come.
In Sri Lanka, energy demand has been increasing at the rate of 7.8 percent per annum. The government plans to diversify sources of energy supply by establishing coal plants. Mutual cooperation between India and Sri Lanka would be able to meet the demand and supply gaps in both countries.
Bhutan and Nepal possess hydroelectric potential of 30,000 and 83,000 MW, respectively. These can be exploited to export power to India and Bangladesh and earn precious foreign exchange, which can be utilized for diverse development activities.
Since South Asian countries have similar structure of their economies, a coordinated approach would be in the larger interest of these countries. By pooling resources and having fair-trading arrangements these countries can come up with win-win prospects.
South Asian countries power sector has been the exclusive preserve of the public sector and requires major changes in policies. Hence attractive terms will be required for foreign investment.
If south Asian countries adopt uniform norms, it will be to the mutual advantage of all concerned. Moreover, they would also gain by integrating their environmental policies for a better future. This fact should be comprehended by the Governments of all countries of this region and should devise appropriate plans to accomplish this objective.