• Sign up
  • ‎What is Shvoong?‎
  • Sign In
    Sign In
    Remember my username Forgot your password?

Summaries and Short Reviews

.

Shvoong Home>Science>A Heuristic Method of Scenario Generation in Multi-Stage Decision Problem under Uncertainty Summary

.

A Heuristic Method of Scenario Generation in Multi-Stage Decision Problem under Uncertainty

Article Abstract by: fadzlina    

Original Authors: Suherman; Herman Mawengkang
In most applications, the probability distribution of random variables is unknown or if it is given, it would be too expensive
to consider the discrete distribution with a huge possible realization or to handle the continuous distribution with numerical integration.  It is common to choose a set of representative realizations with relatively small in number called scenario to present random events.  Scenario can be a quartile of a known distribution or historical data, prediction of several trees or constructed using simulation.  Each scenario is assigned to a probability value to reflect the likelihood of the occurrence of a random event.  For multi-stage model the information of scenario can be organized in a tree structure.  In this paper we purpose an algorithm for generating efficiently tree decision of multi-stage stochastic programming problem.  A heuristic method is used to generate discrete probability distribution specified by four first marginal moment and correlation.
Published: April 23, 2007
Please Rate this Review : 1 2 3 4 5

Bookmark & share this post

.