Melting
glaciers will increase the risk of floods, reduce water supplies and eventually threaten one-sixth of the world’s population in the Indian sub-continent.
It is estimated that summer
rainfall in India will increase by 20 per cent; this will affect us as our economy is largely dependent on agriculture. Most states will experience
increased rainfall, and incidents of extreme rainfall will also increase. This is not some doomsday scenario - the signs of
climate change are already becoming apparent.
Temperatures are increasing,
monsoon rainfall is changing, and the Himalayan glaciers are melting.
The vagaries of climate change are demonstrated by the fact that while floods are wreaking havoc on one part of Bihar, another is hit by drought. And Assam, one of India’s wettest states, has a drought while the Thar desert in the western state of Rajasthan is flooded. This shows the changing pattern of the monsoon rainfall.
Even the National Climate Centre in Pune acknowledges that one of the most significant consequences of
global warming would be an increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall events.
But the India Meteorological Department still maintains that there is no evidence that global warming is affecting India! It says that the average annual rainfall in the country is within the range. The only problem is that the average annual rainfall for the entire country does not take into account the sharp regional variance in rainfall. And recent trends also show that the increased rainfall is happening in fewer days as the number of rainy days is declining. Thus, the intensity of rainfall is also increasing.
Data over the past five years suggests that the monsoon is shifting westwards. This may lead to the flooding of Bombay metropolis becoming more and more common. And the monsoon is arriving one month later, in the month of August instead of July. Surely, all of this points to the impact of global warming.
Himalayan glaciers cover a large area in India and the Tibetan plateau — one of the largest concentrations of freshwater stored in glaciers outside the poles. Glacial melt makes about 30-50 per cent of the water in major northern rivers. These glaciers are the most sensitive parameters of temperature change. As atmospheric temperatures increases, the precipitation on glaciers will be mostly in the form of rain and not in the form of snow. Glaciers all over are retreating, and the rate of retreat has increased sharply in recent years. In fact, they are likely to disappear by 2035. But Indian scientists are still divided over the impact global warming has upon our glaciers. Perhaps they are too busy trying to map and monitor the Himalayan glaciers to reach any conclusion.
Every government agency seems to be in a state of denial over global warming. There is not enough research, and in the absence on credible information the Indian officials have been focussing solely on the politics of climate change, not on the actual implications. There is an impending crisis, but there seems to be no political pressure on the government to do anything about it.
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