In an interview with the Down To Earth correspondant, Sailesh Naik (secretary to the Ministry of Earth Sciences) talks about
India's
weather forecasting system.
Forecasting Models - The forecast for India's moonson using dynamic models could not accurately predict the weather. The basic problem with the dynamic model is that it is not uniformly accurate at all times, and for all regions.
Staff Shortage - No recruitment has taken place in the Indian Meteorological Department for some time. The department is now thinking in terms of recruiting students after graduation, and training for a couple of years. The Department needs to double its staff strength. It also needs scientists with the (technical) capability to do modelling and assimilation of data.
Weather forecasts for farmers - The weather forecasts are unable to cater to the farmers, the people who need them the most (in terms of rainfall). Detailed forecasts at the village and district level will eventually be needed; but for that the computer systems will need to be upgraded. The present day forecasts are limited to a range of 50 to 100 kms, and are termed regional level forecasts.
Private forecasting - In principle, the Department has no problem with private forecasters.
Weather Stations - The Department is in the process of installing automatic weather stations.
The secretary says that there is a lack of communication among scientists and institutes; as they communicate mostly through published studies and during workshops. Assimilation of new data into the (mathematical) forecasting models is also proving to be problematic.