The
model in this paper is designed to determine the effect
selected factors have
on the number of fatalities
in Poland over the analysed period. Of the
potential factors those
selected include the GDP, unemployment and
interventions. By assessing the
effects them author will be able estimate the
effects of specific road safety measures or the effect changes in the economy
will have on Poland’s road safety levels. The model is based on monthly road
deaths in Poland between 1990 and 2002. This is because the period after 1990
is considered reliable due to the social and economic stability which followed
Poland’s political transition in 1989. The assumption is critical for the
conclusions drawn and how correct they are about the causes of change in the
series and the estimation of the series’ future values.