Much of the Hindu-IBN exit poll forecast has come true to the letter T. It predicted around 157-170 seats for the DMK front and nearly 60 for the AIADMK front. The DMK has ended up with 163 seats leaving 61 for the AIADMK-led front raising the argument that the popular vote this time had drawn a logical, realistic equidistance between the two. It is a vote against the inaction and sometimes autocratic behaviour of the AIADMK
government and a vote for a healthy, functional government. The people of Tamil Nadu have reaffirmed their faith in the DMK front with strong expectations about its performance. It is a clear mandate in one way - perform or perish.
It may be true that the freebies that both the fronts offered influenced the outcome to a large extent. The DMK manifesto from the beginning was logical about the freebies, aware that it would be suicidal to promise the moon. Its manifesto mentioned
rice at
Rs. 2 a
kg, two acre
free of poromboke land (after making it cultivable of course) for landless peasants, around 3.5 lakh jobs for the unemployed, free colour TV sets and the rest. Instead of analysing its electoral mileage properly the AIADMK guffawed at it asking the UPA government as to how it could make them feasible. The first strategic blunder must have cost it dearly for it did a somersault immediately by announcing 10 kg rice free, computers for those Plus Two students who did creditably etc.
It is a million dollar question whether the freebies would be distributed without hitch. As the Finance Minister Chidambaram said at a election meeting every state had its own price for PDS rice ranging from Rs. 3 to 3.50 or more. He said it was a practical and realistic offer at Rs. 2 a kg because the Centre procured rice at Rs. 10 a kg and sold it to the States at Rs. 5.60 entailing a subsidy of Rs. 3.60. If the State Government could sell it at Rs. 2 a kg it must be aware of the economics behind it.
However on the day he was sworn in Karunanidhi did a coup de grace by practically implementing the three major promises he made to the electorate and signed the orders in the presence of the public. They were the rice scheme, waiver of loans for farmers and distribution of free colour TV sets within a three-month time frame. The first two will cost the exchequer nearly Rs. 7500 crores and he boldly affirmed that the government would find means to tackle the deficit arising out of it. It will be interesting to see the State Budget presented this year. In all possibility the government will have to bridge the deficit by levies of some kind or the other primarily aimed at the salaried class and small and medium industries. However the timely announcement of the schemes will go down well with the people though a year later the impact may thin down.
The present popular verdict,in my view, is for change and also industrial development in Tamil Nadu which had regressed in the recent years. Foremost is the fact that Tamil Nadu, which was in the forefront of industrial growth in the 60s, has slipped to lower rating now. Tamil Nadu's
power front has been buttressed well with the growth of wind power which accounts for 20% of the total. As an alternate source efforts have been made to tap wind potential with wind farms set up and generating around 1400 units for the power grid. Its transport sector is well spread out covering 90 percent of the rural and urban areas.
Right now there has been a fresh thrust to knowledge-based industries in Hosur, Coimbatore and Chennai. Sivakasi has been contributing substantially to the exchequer through taxes with flourishing industries such as match-making and offset printing units. Investors in the Information Technology area have been willing to put their money and the new government obviously is going to throw the carpet to them. It will mean substantial pressure on the power grid.
However the CPI(M)lobby inside the UPA is going to fex its muscles following its impressive, nonetheless anticipated, performance in West Bengal and Kerala. Their Chief Minister in West Bengal Mr.Buddadeb Bhattacharjee, however, has been very receptive to flow of foreign investments in the area of knowledge-based industries. The area of disagreements among the coalition partners on economic policy is minimal now.
Tamil Nadu's two major business hubs are Karur - known for bus-building units, and Sivakasi. Both generate a turnover of around Rs. 5000 crores to the exchequer. How the Chief Minister will balance the cost of populist schemes with proper concessions to the industry remains to be seen. In all it is a heady scenario now in Tamil Nadu.
More summaries about the Tamil Nadu under a new regime