It's the economy, stupid is one of the blunter sayingsfrom American politics. Thenation's economic performance will be the
equivalent of England's currentperformance in the Ashes. The factsare pretty stark. According to the Sector Skills Development Agency the UK iscurrently still about the fourth or fifth largest economy in the world but interms of human capital we languish in 17th place. If he gets into Number 10, wecan expect the Blair's "
education, education, education" to bemodified to "skills, skills, skills". Britain'sbusiness leaders have recognised the urgency of the task. So that'sthe problem. The newtargets will, according to David Melville, chairman of Lifelong Learning UK,effectively "double the progress expected in the current governmenttargets". So, forexample, Leitch called for an increase from 29% to 40% of the proportion of theworkforce with graduate level qualifications. And, lower down the scale, hewants 90% to have GCSE-level skills by 2020, instead of the 69% now. It is notgoing to be comfortable. Employersare the new blue-eyed boys. In other words, it is business not the education sector that will decidewhat is taught and how it is delivered. So
thegovernment will take the risk of going down the learning account route again,despite the chaos that surrounded the failed Individual Learning Accountdebacle. The primeminister's recent encouragement for the International Baccalaureate (IB) hasonly added to the complexity of the post-16 pathways available to young people.Thegovernment is already worried that the new Specialised Diplomas have beenmisunderstood.As Leitchsays, the evidence from other countries suggests that "parity of esteem ofthe vocational route and a smoothing of the current break point at age 16 areneeded to achieve world-leading levels of post-16 participation in educationand training". Since thegovernment decided not to incorporate GCSEs and A-levels within the diplomas,many have had doubts whether there will be either "parity of esteem"or a "smoothing" of the transition from academic to vocationaleducation. WithGordon Brown talking about keeping all young people in education or traininguntil 18, there is clearly a need for a smoother transition at 16, making iteasier to combine the academic and the vocational. There is alot at stake. The Leitch Report holds out a big prize: A better skilledworkforce could bring an estimated gain of £80bn to the British economy overthe next 30 years. That wouldpay for an awful lot of hospitals, schools, police officers, consumer spendingor whatever else we choose to spend it on to improve our quality of life.