In 2007 the United States is paying four billion Dollars per month for the present conflict in Iraq. No one expected in 2003
that 666,000 Iraqis (3% of the Iraqi
population) and 3,000 U.S. soldiers would be dead, that 25,000 U.S soldiers would be seriously injured and that 100 Iraqis would be killed daily in random out of control violence. The Sunni population armed with the requisite money and education are fleeing Iraq at the rate of 1,000 per month. The educated Sunni have provided Iraq with leadership since the foundation of the state. The execution of Saddam Hussein, a Sunni, could have major adverse consequences for Iraq, a
country with a small Sunni population, in a majority Shi’ite population and surrounded by majority Sunni population countries like Jordan, Syria, Egypt and Turkey. Iraq is completely out of control, located in the centre of a region supplying the Western World with vital oil supplies. A weak Iraq guarantees a strong Iran. Preversely the Al-Sadr and Badr Brigade militias are as likely to attack Iran as attack the hated U.S. military presence in their country. The unpopularity of President Ahmedinejad amongst Iranian University students is well documented, this could be exploited as most under 25’s are pro-Western. Iran’s influence on Iraqi Shi’ites may be resented long term. Saddam Hussein’s trial did not allow for details of U.S. and Western European military aid provided to him for the duration of the Iran-Iraq war to be exposed, Hussein could have behaved like President Assad who quietly dissolved the Syrian-Lebanese border and took over his neighbouring country, Hussein could have retained his Western allies, alas his destruction of Kuwait was his nemesis. The U.S. is left to deal with Iran which is a major threat to the security of Israel. The U.S. could be pressurised by Israel to launch a pre-emptive strike on Iranian Nuclear Research sites. The U.S. is fully aware of the 1981 Israeli strike on the Iraqi Nuclear facility when it was least expected. Israel has the determination as always to deal comprehensively with its own security needs. The Middle East in 2007 is more volatile than before the 2003 invasion. President Bush senior was advised in 1991 not to invade Iraq due to the prohibitive costs involved. The invasion of Iraq is an unmitigated disaster.