CLIMATE SHOCK PIERRE MARIO FITTER Businessworld 7 March 08
Imagine that rising temperatures and erratic rainfall have destroyed 20 per cent of India’s food stock; coastline cities and towns are flooded; diseases have become more virulent and widespread; people lack access to food and water. And Bangladesh, China and Pakistan all threaten a war over access to shared rivers.
Admittedly, this is India’s worst-case scenario with respect to climate change. But it is precisely for this reason that last April, Margaret Beckett, then Britain’s foreign secretary, initiated a first-ever debate in the United Nations Security Council on the links between climate change and security.
One day before the landmark UNSC debate, a group of retired American generals and admirals released a report on the security implications of climate change. “The predicted effects of climate change have the potential to disrupt our way of life and to force changes in the way we keep ourselves safe and secure,” they stated.
In 2003, American scenario planning experts Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall presented a report to the US Department of Defense outlining the impact of climate change on security. They were of the view that severe environmental problems will lead to a natural
resources crisis, which is likely to escalate the degree of global conflict.
A Disaster Awaits For India, climate change will hit what are already the country’s most vulnerable natural resources — water, agriculture and public health. Climate change will adversely impact access to such vital resources and so, will be disruptive to peace. Access to water will be the worst-off.
Reduced river flow will affect hydropower generation and will also hit
agricultural production. Coastal flooding will damage all coastal fresh water aquifers and nearby agricultural land. It will also flood cities such as Kolkata and Mumbai.
Water wars will be common in the future. One such war could take place between India and Pakistan over rivers originating in Kashmir. There may also be conflicts with Bangladesh over the Farakka Barrage and with Nepal over the Mahakali river.
Food And Agriculture Climate change will produce an agricultural crisis of a nature that has never been witnessed before. India’s ground water levels are falling so quickly that up to 20 per cent of agricultural production is under threat. India’s cereal production could fall by 18 per cent or 125 million tonnes, from temperature changes alone. This will severely impact food supplies and agricultural activity.
Possible solutions include creating crop varieties more resistant to climate variances and also creating lean and efficient supply chains linking farmers’ fields to the consumers.
Health And Disease
Even a one degree rise in average temperatures could kill more than 300,000 people worldwide, according to the World Health Organization. There will be increased incidence of vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases, heat stress and even mental stress due to a combination of external environmental factors.
A health crisis may yet be averted. The 2008-09 budget boosted health spending to Rs 16,534 crore, a 15 per cent increase. Additionally, 4,62,000 associated social health activists and link workers are in place, as are 177,924 village health and sanitation committees. The level of privatisation in the urban health sector needs to increase. Private hospitals and institutions need to be brought under an epidemic and disaster management system.
The Risk of Inaction
No one really knows what South Block thinks of climate change. Chidambaram’s budget promised an institutional mechanism to review appropriate responses to climate change. Last year, a similar announcement created the high-level Prime Ministers’ council on climate change.
Indian
businesses too face many risks from climate change. For one, industries that rely on water or agriculture as raw materials will be hit hard. If energy costs rise further, inefficient production methods will become big cost-centers for companies. Additionally, consumers and investors may start to turn away from businesses that do not address environmental responsibilities. Finally, businesses could even face lawsuits for factories that emit greenhouse gases.
A Business-like Response
Such reasons are enough for businesses to start acting before moods of the government, investor and customer change. Venture capitalists such as John Doerr and Vinod Khosla are pouring millions of dollars into research on bio-fuels, solar energy, advanced materials and efficiency improvements. Even serial entrepreneur Richard Branson has announced a $25 million prize for breakthroughs in green technology.
Guiding Principles To be fair, India’s government has already done well with legislations, such as the Electricity Act of 2001, which encourages renewable energy generation, and the 2001 Energy Conservation Act. The Finance Minister’s proposed institutional mechanism on climate change will review clean technology products, fuel emission and efficiency standards, the setting up of an emissions trading platform and the building of sustainable, greenfield cities. Excise duties on hybrid cars and electric vehicles have also been cut.
An Umbrella Proposal
JNU researcher Krishna believes that access to vital resources can be perpetuated through a natural resources management plan (NRMP). This plan, he says should be the foundation of every other law governing the use of natural resources, such as forests, land, water, agriculture, environmental policies, mining and minerals and energy and power policies. Mindsets in South Block and in industry must change if real progress must be made. We can beat climate change, but we will need to be sincere about it.