Booming demand for Internet services combined
with insufficient
infrastructure investment could leave the Web
vulnerable to brown outs within three years, a study released Tuesday
predicted.
Nemertes Research said Internet
providers need to invest from $42
billion to $55 billion -- or 60% to 70% more than current plans call
for -- to stave off interruptions to the digital economy that could
happen if the ''Net bogs down. "The next Google, YouTube, or Amazon
might not arise" if the situation isn''t fixed, Nemertes said.
The problem, the group said, is that bandwidth
usage is outpacing
infrastructure build outs. While core fiber and switching/routing
technology "will scale nicely," Internet access resources could soon be
overwhelmed in three to five years, Nemertes said.
The trouble could be particularly acute in North America, the
researchers said.
"Rather like osteoporosis, the underinvestment in infrastructure
will painlessly and invisibly leach
competitiveness out of the
economy," said Nemertes.
Nemertes conceded that its study, in many ways, represents a best
guess at what''s happening with the Web. "The Internet is almost opaque
to serious researchers, even those with the necessary technical skills,
integrity and desire," said the group.
That''s because commercial Internet providers closely guard
information about usage and technology roadmaps. "Carriers and content
providers refuse to reveal their inner workings," said Nemertes, adding
that it''s understandable that service providers are reluctant to reveal
data that might undermine their competitiveness or compromise user
privacy.
Nonetheless, "we conclude by urging content and service providers
to cooperate with researchers in sharing data," said the study''s
authors. Nemertes also said Congress should consider tax credits to
spur Internet providers to add more broadband capacity.
See original article on InformationWeek.com
Published: November 25, 2007
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