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Summary by Konthai of views by TB MACDONALD
On INDIA CHINA RELATIONS. entitled "
CAUTION : Sharp Bends Ahead " in in ''OUTLOOK''
___________________________________________________-____PART 1.
In late September 2007, a leading financial analyst opined that"
Chindia "stands for China plus India, rather than China versus India."
That may be true now, , but over time the "plus" will evolve to
"versus" on many levels as the path pursued by Asia''s two giants
appear to be divergent for merging into into one great complex of
economic development. China and India are different countries marching
in the same road of
globalization. But the contrasts sharpen when
we observe Asia''s two most populous countries pursue national
interests which are different over issues such as access to markets,
natural resources and strategic partners. The core differences between
China and India are
political. China''s political leadership confronts
substantial challenges in the management of popular aspirations: by
maintaining rapid economic growth based on investment and exports, at
the expense of wages and consumption,.. By this they control by
force most aspects of political expression often . resulting in discontent
,. Pro-democracy demonstrations at Tienanmen Square in 1989,which
rocked the government(until they were crushed by the military) left a
blot in the history of the Chinese Communist Party is a case in point.
In contrast, India''s approach allows for more open debate over societal
aspirations and goals. When Indians are discontent with government
policies, they have the option to change leaders peacefully but sometimes
resulting in unwieldy coalition governments . This results
in implementing policies difficult. But , India has avoided the
regime-threatening upheaval of a Tienanmen Square and Indians retain
their confidence in using the ballot box. To evaluate which system
is successful in improving people''s lives and managing the process of
globalization depends on the factors like economic growth, poverty
reduction, political stability, business expansion, and conflict or
compromise. In China, the high rates of economic growth have led to
substantial decreases in poverty rates while, in India, poverty
reduction has been more modest. According to the World Bank and
International Monetary Fund Study, between 1981 and 2004,, while in
China there was an estimated decline in the absolute number of extreme
poor by more than 500 million people, in India, this number
remained roughly constant. Indian democracy''s adoption of
globalization and more market-oriented policies have not reduced
extreme poverty, while China''s authoritarianism has delivered the
economic goods. But India''s open-door economic experiment has been in
motion for a shorter period of time. In addition, there have not been
the extreme ranges of socioeconomic experimentation in India as in
China. That experimentation included the infamous Great Leap Forward,
the ill-fated Backyard Furnace Campaign and forced criminalization,
which resulted in famine and the death of an estimated 30 million
people. Also, India''s relative lack of achievement in many social areas
is mostly unrelated to globalization. Rather, they are complicated by
domestic political problems, bloated bureaucracies and corruption, all
of which push back globalization. Globalization has made Indians
aware of what can be achieved, especially when their nation is compared
to China. Although e is complicated by corruption
and religious/ethnic differences, the political system has managed to
uphold parliamentary democracy. This allows an escape valve for
public frustrations. Unlike its neighbors, India has not been subject
to military coups or civil wars. Even when Emergency was declared in
1975 the country flirted with authoritarianism for a short period, but
steered back to elective politics soon in 1977.
The two nations loom
large in the geopolitics of Asia. China has a close relationship with
Pakistan, assisting in the development of that country''s nuclear
program, and building influence in Burma. This is not to argue that
both are on the edge of a new conflict. Actually the existing
relations are the warmest they had been for a long time. Sino-Indian
relations started to thaw in 2000, gaining momentum with the visits of
celebrities countries, including Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpaypee''s
2003 travel to Beijing.. The trade between the two countries topped
$10 billion.in the folllowing year
KONTHAI ( Continued in Part 2)