Successful pregnancy can be predicted using three transvaginal ultrasound markers by 94 % between days 33 nt0 36 days
of age of gestation.This is a finding in the recent American College Obstetrics and Gynecology 57th Annual Meeting.This was presented by Dr.Soyoung Bae from University of Toledo Medical Center in Ohio.Her paper won 3rd prize. On postconception dates 33 to 36, gestational sac diameter of 12 mm and above, yolk sac diameter of 2 to 6 mm, and presence of fetal cardiac activity were all significantly related to successful pregnancy outcome in healthy women," Dr. Bae said. "These markers were associated with favorable pregnancy outcome even in the poor prognostic subgroups of women of advanced maternal age and those with recurrent pregnancy loss."
A case control study of 1092 pregnancies, majority were conceived by infertility treatments so the age of gestation is known.On postconception day 33 to 36, investigators found that if they could identify fetal cardiac activity, the success rate was approximately 90%. Without cardiac activity, the miscarriage rate was approximately 88%. If the gestational sac was more than 12 mm , the pregnancy's success rate was about 92%; if it was less than 8 mm , the miscarriage rate was about 96%. Gestational sac size diameter between 8 and 12 mm was a gray zone; the success rate was about 66%," said Dr. Bae.
Dr. Kurt Barnhart made comment :
The majority of yolk sac sizes were between 2 and 6 mm in diameter, and this forecast successful pregnancy in about 90% of women. " Ultrasound markers of an early pregnancy are often used to diagnose miscarriage. If something is not growing according to the milestones expected, then we think perhaps the pregnancy is going to result in a miscarriage. This is a very good quantification of what some of those signs are, and suggests that perhaps early changes can be used to classify someone as high or low risk, rather than just waiting for the miscarriage to occur."