How expensive Vietcombank’s shares will go for is the
current hot topic of investor discussions. Many say they will accept
the VND130-150,000 range, while analysts argue the IPO will be a
game for
big players, ready to
pay VND200,000/share or higher.
According to Hoang Xuan Quyen, Director of the
Investment Analysis Division under Tan Viet Securities Company, he will
be able to accurately forecast Vietcombank’s share
price in only a few
days, after the list of registered investors has been completed. If the
number of investors registered to
buy shares is high, the price will be
as well, and vice versa.
Contradicting predictions have been released since the
national leading bank announced the initial share price at VND100,000,
several days ago. Analysts say that no previous IPO has attracted such
rapt investor attention.
Local newspaper VnExpress conducted a quick survey and
found that most
individual investors are willing to pay VND130-150,000
per share. Vu Manh Vinh, an investor on ACB trading floor said that
thanks to a household name, high chartered capital and robust
performance, a reasonable share price is VND140,000.
Mr Binh, an investor on Bao Viet trading floor, said
that he knows an investor who has reserved VND3-5bil for the IPO and
would accept between VND130-150,000/share.
Xuan Phong, General Director of T&M Finance, says
individuals should not purchase shares because the IPO is targeting and
will benefit domestic and foreign institutional investors most.
According to Mr Phong, individual investors who buy
shares at VND130-150,000/share will pay for Vietcombank’s shares by
selling other securities, which will create sharp falls on the market.
If an investor gets the right to buy 5,000 shares at
VND150,000/share, that is VND750mil, a significant sum in this market,
Mr Phong said.
Vietcombank has decided to sell 6.5% of total shares
to the public, 30% of which will be sold to foreign investors. As the
demand is high and the supply limited, Mr Phong believes foreign
investment funds are willing to pay over VND200,000/share.
Mr Quyen from Tan Viet Securities Company also thinks
institutional investors will be superior to individual investors, but
does not believe foreign investment funds will pay over
VND200,000/share. He thinks institutional investors are wise enough to
make accurate and reasonable decisions.
Mr Quyen says most individual investors are
speculators or short-term buyers and sellers, who aim to profit from
items first listing on the bourse. Whereas, Vietcombank will only list
after the time it takes to negotiate with strategic shareholders, which
could be awhile.
Ngo Van Minh, Deputy Head of the Brokerage Division
under VPBS Securities Company, agreed that Vietcombank shares will not
be attractive in the eyes of short term investors, contrary to long
term investors to whom this is a strong, seasoned investment choice.
Long-termers invest 30% of their money on prospective items and the
other 70% on perdurable shares. Mr Minh said that Vietcombank is a good
choice for long term investors, because of its reputation, experience
and market niche.
Vietcombank’s representative, at the roadshow on
December 11, acknowledged that Vietcombank’s IPO might not be as
successful as expected. Nguyen Phuoc Thanh, General Director of
Vietcombank, said investors are in need of money, and he doesn’t expect
they will sell other shares to buy Vietcombank’s at higher prices.
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