In this memo the vice
president of Nature''s Way (NW), a chain of stores selling healthfood and
health-related
products, recommends opening a store in Plainesville.To supportthis
recommendation the vice president cites the following facts about Plainesville:(1) sales of
exercise shoes and clothing are at all-time highs; (2) the local health clubis more popular than ever; and (3) the city''s schoolchildren are required to participatein a fitness program. Close scrutiny of each of these facts, however, reveals thatnone of them lend credible support to the recommendation.First, strong sales of exercise apparel do not necessarily indicate that Plainesvilleresidents would be interested in NW''s products.or that these
residents are interested inexercising. Perhaps exercise apparel happens to be fashionable at the moment, or inexpensivecompared to other types of clothing. For that matter, perhaps the strongerthan-usual sales are due to increasing sales to tourists. In short, without ruling out otherpossible reasons for the strong sales the vice president cannot convince me on thebasis of them that Plainesville residents are exercising regularly, let alone that they wouldbe interested in buying the sorts of food and other products that NW sells.Secondly, even if exercise is more popular among Plainesville residents than everbefore, the vice president assumes further that people who exercise regularly arealso interested in buying health food and health-related products.Yet the memo containsno evidence to support this assumption. Lacking such evidence it is equallypossible that aside from exercising Plainesville residents have little interest in leadinga healthy lifestyle. In fact, perhaps as a result of regular exercise they believe they aresufficiently fit and healthy and do not need a healthy diet.Thirdly, the popularity of the local health
club is little indication that NW willearn a profit from a store in Plainesville. Perhaps club members live in an area ofPlainesville nowhere near feasible sites for a NW store. Or perhaps the club''s primaryappeal is as a singles meeting place, and that members actually have little interest ina healthy lifestyle. Besides, even if the club''s members would patronize a NW storethese members might be insufficient in number to ensure a profit for the store, especiallyconsidering that this health club is the only one in Plainesville.Fourth, the fact that a certain fitness program is mandatory for Plainesville''s schoolchildrenaccomplishes nothing toward bolstering the recommendation. Many yearsmust pass before these children will be old enough to make buying decisions when itcomes to food and health-related products.Their habits and interests might changeradically over time. Besides, mandatory participation is no indication of genuine interestin health or fitness. Moreover, when these children grow older it is entirely possiblethat they will favor an unhealthy lifestyle-as a reaction to the healthful habitsimposed upon them now.Finally, even assuming that Plainesville residents are strongly interested in eatinghealth foods and health-related products, the recommendation rests on two additionalassumptions: (1) that this interest will continue in the foreseeable future, and(2) that Plainesville residents will prefer NW over other merchants that sell similarproducts.Unti1 the vice president substantiates both assumptions I remain unconvincedthat a NW store in Plainesville would be profitable.In sum, the recommendation relies on certain doubtful assumptions that renderit unconvincing as it stands.To bolster the recommendation the vice president mustprovide clear evidence-perhaps by way of a local survey or study-that Plainesvilleresidents who buy and wear exercise apparel, and especially the health club''s members,do in fact exercise regularly, and that these exercisers are likely to buy healthfoods and health-related products at a NW store.To better assess the recommendation,I would need tonesville''s health club is popular, and whyPlainesville does not contain more health clubs. I would also need to know whatcompetition NW might face in Plainesville.
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