Saving the planet
If the Chinese economy continues to grow at 8 percent a year, by 2003 income per
person will equal that in the United States in 2004.
If we further assume that
consumption patterns of China’s affluent population in 2031, by then 1.45 billion, will be roughly similar to those of Americans in 2004, we have a startling answer to our question – what if China catches up with the US in consumption per person.
At the current annual US
grain consumption of 900 kilograms per person, including industrial use, China’s grain consumption in 2031 would equal roughly two thirds of the current world grain harvest.
If paper use per person in China in 2031 reaches the current US level, this translates into 305
million tons of paper – double existing world production of 161 million tons. And If
oil consumption per person reaches the US level by 2031, China will use 99 million barrel of oil a day.
The world is currently producing 84 million barrels a day and may never produce more. This helps explain why China’s fast expanding use of oil is already helping to create politics instability.
Or consider cars. If China one day should have three cars for every four people as the US now does, its fleet would total 1.1 billion vehicles, well beyond the current world fleet of 800 million.
Providing the roads, highways and parking lots for such fleet would require paving an area roughly equal to China’s land in rice, its principal
food staple.
The inevitable conclusion to be draw from these projections is that there are not enough resources for China to reach US consumption levels. The western economic model - the fossil fuel-based, automobile-centered, throwaway economy – will not work for China’s 1.45 billion people in 2031.
If it does not work for China, it will not work for India either, which in 25 years is projected to have even more people than China. Nor will it work for the other 3 billion people in developing countries who are also dreaming the “American Dream”.
In an increasingly integrated world economy, where countries everywhere are competing for the same resources – the same oil, grain and iron ore – the existing economic model will not work for industrialized countries like the United States either.
Historically, the world’s farmers produced food, feed and fiber. Today, they are starting to produce fuel, as well. Since nearly everything we eat can be converted into automotive fuel, the high price of oil is becoming the support price for farms products.
It is also determining the price of food. On any given day, there are now two groups of buyers in the world commodity markets: one representing food processors and another representing biofuel production.
The line between the food and fuel economies has suddenly blurred, as service stations compete with supermarkets for the same commodities.
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