The rising economic power of India is linked to the rise in its working
population. According to population projections,
India will have a larger share of working age people during the coming decades. This should lead to sustained economic growth. The relative youth of its
population is referred to as the “
demographic dividend” - as it is expected to boost incomes, savings, investments and tax revenues.
This provides a window of opportunity, but if this “demographic dividend” is to benefit India, it must first provide educational and employment opportunities to its growing army of youth. 40 per cent of India’s population is classified as young (fifteen to thirty years age group), as compared to 30 per cent for China and 27 per cent for the United States. But these young people must be gainfully and productively employed so that they can shoulder the burden of the elderly.
Given the labour shortages in the Gulf and some western nations (such as Australia and Canada), migration may help to alleviate some of the effects of a growing labour pool. But the migrants must posess adequate skills if they are going to be welcomed by their host nations, and for that a sound education is essential.
Parallel to the process of migration, the phenomenon of urbanization is also linked to the escalating growth in population. Only 28 per cent of India’s people live in cities (compared to 43 per cent for China), but more and more people are moving to towns and cities in search of jobs and other facilities. Greater attention needs to be paid to the development of urban infrastructure to sustain this mass movement of people. India must provide basic services such as literacy, water, health care, and sanitation to these internal migrants.
The author cautions that this growing army of youth is both an opportunity and a threat. In other words, it is a double-edged sword, because if they are left to fend for themselves, they could very well become an army of the unemployed. And the result could turn out to be civil and social unrest on an unimaginable scale, as India’s population is likely to cross one and a half billion in the coming decades.