Even as 50 of the poorest countries in the world are expected to triple their population by midcentury.Developed nations with the exception of the US are experiencing a downward trend of their population.This includes China.The fact is birthrate worldwide has already gone down by as much as 50 percent since 1972, from an average of 6 children per woman to2.9 and the downward trend is expected to become permanent.Total world population is expected to grow up to 9 billion people by midcentury. A sharp decline is expected after that period,
depopulation will set in. This major change might as well affect everything globally. Ranging from absolute size and power of nations to global economic growth and over-all quality of life. One of the most important change can be the transfer of growth potential from the developed to developing countries. At present depopulation is already a reality in Europe and other developed countries with the exception of the US which is maintaining its growth through immigration.On average for a society to to grow or even just replace its aging population a woman must bear 2.1 children. But a UN study shows that birthrate is critically of the threshold rate..According to a UN population report, European average is 1.4 children per woman which means that in 4 decades Germany can lose up to 20 percent of its 82.5 million people. Across the continent, Bulgaria is predicted to shrink by 38 percent, Romania by 27 percent, Estonia 25 percent. Russia is already losing about 750,000 yearly. The whole Western Europe is expected to grow by only three million by midcentury. And Asia is closely following the downsizing trend. Japan, with a birthrate of 1.3 children per woman stands to lose a quarter of its 127 million people within 4 decades. China successfully lowered its birthrate from 5.8 children per woman during the 70's to 1.8 today. Which means that China's population will age quickly in one generation. Although China's size will peak at 1.5 billion by mid century it faces a real propect of losing 20-30 percent of its population every generation.A host of developing nations are following this trend. This includes, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea. Increasing wealth of nations usually precedes the downsizing trend.There are exceptions of course.Albania and Kosovo are reproducing fast. While in Asia. Mongolia, Pakistan and the Philippines has high birth rates.The Middle East is expected to double its population to 649 million by midcentury. Saudi Arabia has a birth rate of 5.7 Palestinian territories at 5.9 and Yemen at 7.2.On the other hand The African continent is rapidly increasing despite tha ravages of AIDS.But over-all and in the long term. the prospect for population growth is bleak. Growing wealth discourages childbearing while alcoholism and pollution lowers the sperm count. These are only two of a number of factors including fast changing life styles that pushes the downward trend in population. Among the major effects in the long term is increased migration from the overly populated south to the depopulated north.Whose technological edge will require manpower to maintain their productivity.With the expected decrease in world population, nature will have a chance to recover. Already Japan's forests are so thick they need to be replaced, in some places the bear regained supremacy so that it is dangerous for humans to venture into their territory.The natural cycle of life may regain its balance with lesser number of human beings using the earth's finite resources.Depopulation is seen as unavoidable even without the use of weapons of mass destruction. But if in the future a nuclear war shall occur. Then the wolves will certainly regain their supremacy in the forests of Europe.With only a fourth of world population expected to survive a nuclear holocaust.Humans shall become an endangered species, or are we not already?
More abstracts about the Baby Bust