USA AND THE EMERGING COUNTRIES - CURRENT RISKS Dorival Ari BogoniThe beginning of 2007 witnessed the accomplishment of two important encounters, gathering the main actors of the international scenery. The first in Singapura, to identify the tendencies for Asia and the possible risks. The second, the World Economical Forum, in Davos, that resulted in a report denominated Global Risks 2007. Jeffrey E. Garten, Newsweek January 29, 2007, in an interesting analysis affirms that what more surprised him in both encounters was how little it was said about the United States - about the opportunities that will occur for the future or the risks that their actions can bring. He presents his theory then: “the biggest risk in the world economy today, for Asia especially, but for everyone else too, is the possibility that America will opt out of the leadership role it once played in the global marketplace.” He felt shocked with the report of WEF, when affirming that of the 23 discussed core risks, one was off the radar. The decline of U.S. leadership.And so he concludes: Big mistake! The evaluation itself, besides honest but no necessarily correct, deserves considerations and reflections. Immediately it evidences the American perception, that that powerful Nation is and will be irreplaceable. It remains to know if the other’s perception gives him reason. Another detail no less intriguing is the statement of the decline of the American’s leadership influence, what doesn't stop being surprising that they have noticed and accepted the accomplished fact, although too late. The attacks to the Twin Towers in New York, are among the reasons of the shaking of the Empire, already decadent. (Google, Dorival Ari Bogoni, Artigos IPEB, O DECLÍNIO DE MAIS UM IMPÉRIO). Is my believing that that lamentable and barbaric event served as the inflection point for the slow but relentless decline. The Empire counterattacked, always in its habitual way. USA declared war to terrorism and all countries that support or harbor terrorists.
His strategy was based on three pillars: use of its hegemonic military power; preventive actions against new threats, real or conceited; and unilateral actions by the State as in the diplomatic matters.The results are public and well-known. Iraq himself can say it! Among the reasons of the decline, three of them deserve prominence: the defense of their own interests, to the costs of other nations; the imposition of ideas and models to other countries, unilaterally; and the indiscriminate use of force to reach the previous principles. The image of the USA in the continent is measured by the survey of Newsweek, January 15, 2007: only 13 percent of the interviewees evaluated the way that the north American government treats Latin America as positive, versus 86% as negative. Unbearable result, at least. New international actors, besides the current members of G7, are upraising; among them, the denominated emerging countries: China, India, Brazil and South Africa. Each one with their potentialities and problems, in their areas of influence, but undeniably as new centers of power. The USA for reasonable time will still be the main global player. However their days of glory are part of the past, as well noticed Garten. The international community, naturally and without larger surprises, is witnessing the fall of more an Empire. In a gradual way, but as far as we can see, irreversible. The dynamics of the process will give place to other nations, that will look for space in the world’s scenery and they will go occupying the vacuum of power. Running or no risks, real or imaginary.It is the inexorable evolution of History!